Se construye de arriba abajo en cuatro bloques: ingreso (ADR real por noches vendidas), gastos operativos hasta el NOI, servicio de la deuda y flujo de caja tras hipoteca, siempre estresando ocupación, ADR y tipo de interés antes de firmar. El ADR vacacional medio en España fue de 165,49 € en 2025 con 56,6% de ocupación, y en un ejemplo de apartamento medio el NOI se queda en torno al 36% del bruto. Un bruto del 6-10% suele caer a un neto del 3-7% tras gastos, impuestos y vacíos.
Almost all bad-going tourism investments share the same source: a gross number that was never translated into euro by hand. The announcement promised a gross 9%, the seller taught three full summer months, and nobody built the complete pro- form before offering. The financial model exists precisely for that: forcing the conversation of gross income to NOI (net operating gain) and thus to the actual cash flow after debt and taxes.
That article isn't Excel's theory. That's the exact sequence we use at Bliss before we recommend a purchase: four blocks - income, expenses, NOI and debt - anchored to market data with source and actual portfolio figures. And above all, the step that nearly nobody does: stress test That checks if an asset survives a bad year.
1. Retirement: ADR × nights sold, not August fee
The first line of the model is entrance by accommodation, and that's where the most inflates. The classic error is to multiply high season fare by 365 nights. The reality: income is the ADR (average daily fee) multiplied by nights effectively soldand they depend on their annual employment.
The market references of 2025 put the bar into place. The average holiday ADR in Spain was 165,49 € (+ 2,8%) with an average 56,6% (Lodgify, 2025). But the average hides quite different typologies: villas and houses averaged 256,6 € / night and tourist apartments 139 € / night (Lodgify, 2025). It models your asset with the comparable of its category and its neighborhood, not with the national aggregate.
For parthotel or hotel-type assets, the available unit entry sign is the RevpAR, que combina precio y ocupación en una sola cifra: 125,4 € en 2025 (+5,5%), con un ADR hotelero de 166,1 € y una ocupación del 75,5% (STR-Cushman & Wakefield, 2025). For the first year, it also applies a start ramp: employment rarely reaches its level stabilized from the first month.
2. The cascade of euro pre- sign: from raw to NOI
Aquí vive el corazón del modelo y el wedge de Bliss: bajar el ingreso bruto al neto, línea a línea, en euros, antes de firmar. Un ejemplo ilustrativo de un apartamento turístico de gama media —ADR 139 €, ocupación 56,6%— deja el siguiente recorrido. Las cifras de gasto son ilustrativas (estimación sectorial); las de ingreso usan el comparable de apartamento Lodgify 2025.
| Concept | Annual amount | % on gross |
|---|---|---|
| Gross income (139 € × 365 × 56,6%) | 28.720 € | 100% |
| − Channel Commission (mix OTA / direct) | −3.880 € | −13,5% |
| − Cleaning and laundry | −3.450 € | −12% |
| − Supply (light, water, internet) | −2.300 € | −8% |
| − IBI, community and insurance | −2.580 € | −9% |
| − Professional management | −4.300 € | −15% |
| − Maintenance, replacement and gaps | −1.870 € | −6,5% |
| NOI (net operating profit) | 10.340 € | 36% |
Retirement modeling with ADR of tourist apartment 139 € and occupation 56,6% (Lodgify, 2025). Proprietary expenditure lines and operational costs are around ~ 70% of the raw into a well-managed VT (sector estimate). A guiding example, not a result guarantee.
La lectura es incómoda y necesaria: de un bruto de casi 29.000 €, el NOI se queda en torno al 36%. Es coherente con el patrón sectorial de que un bruto vacacional del 6-10% suele caer a un neto del 3-7% tras gastos, impuestos y vacíos (estimación sectorial). Quien razona sobre el bruto paga de más por el activo; quien razona sobre el NOI compra con criterio.
3. The sales channel: the line that moves the NOI most
Within the cascade, the cascade commission deserves its own chapter because every point you get back falls almost completely to NOI. The half half of Spanish vacation is Booking 54,3%, Airbnb 26,7% and directly 17,6% (Lodgify, 2025), and OTAs charged from 15% to 18% by booking. That commission isn't an inevitable fixed expenditure: it's a lever.
Bliss's own direct channel, Tudesvío, charges a 10% (isn't free) versus OTAs 15-18%. On the gross income of the example, move ten share points from OTA to directly free hundreds of euros an year that go complete to gain. In the model, this translates into a lower commission line and a higher NOI without touching the occupation and the ADR: pure distribution efficiency.
4. Debt: To separate the income from the asset from your capital
Thus far NOI measures the performance of the asset, with no debt. The following block introduces leverage, which amplifies the return on your own funds as an asset's yield outweighs the cost of debt and destroys it if otherwise. That's why a good model keeps two separate figures:
NOI / asset value = Cap rate
The pure performance of the property as a business, before any financing. That's what you compare between assets and what an institutional buyer will look at the suit.
Cash flow after mortgage
NOI less debt share. It's the money that really goes into your pocket every year and that determines if the asset's self-financing or requires you to bring cash.
Yield on own funds (cash-on-cash)
Cash flow after mortgage divided into the capital you put up. That's the metric that really measures your return as a leveraged investor.
The operative rule: the deal is solid only if the asset holds an interest rate rise without entering negative cash flow. If cash flow after mortgage depends that the Eurobor doesn't move, you don't have an investment, you have a tipstick.
5. The Stress Test: The Base Scenario
La pro-forma del vendedor siempre es la versión optimista. El stress test consiste en recalcular el modelo con supuestos peores y comprobar que el activo sigue de pie. Tres palancas, mínimo:
| Variable | Base scenario | pessimistic scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Annual employment | 56,6% (half market) | − 10 sts (47%) |
| ADR | Zone comparable | − 10% by competitive pressure |
| Debt costs | Current rate | +150-200 pb |
| Results to be monitored | Cash flow positive | Is that still positive? |
Base occupancy: Lodgify, 2025. The pessimistic scenario: an investor's precautionary criterion (estimate).
A high quality deal with an attractive base stage and un escenario pesimista todavía viable. Si el pesimista entra en pérdidas, el margen de error es nulo: cualquier imprevisto —una temporada floja, una derrama, una subida de tipos— te lleva a aportar caja. La competencia que vende "+40%" o "150% anual" sin publicar su método no resiste ni el primer recálculo conservador.
6. Management as a model variable, not as a footnote
The model treats management as a cost line but its actual effect is bidirectional: good management increases income and reduces leakage. In actual portfolio, Bliss operates with a occupation of 87% and income 34% above mean market data (internal Bliss), using dynamic pricelabs, pms (Lodgify) and direct channel Tudesvío. Moved to proform, that means more nights sold, better ADR and less OTA commission: the three levers that move the most NOI, the three at once.
That's why the model isn't supposed to have an average market occupation as a roof. It takes up the mean for the pessimistic stage and allows professional management to be the difference that separates the basic case from the optimistic - documented and unpromised.
7. Bliss vs. Investment content to use
The professional investor has already seen too many models that start and end up in the rough. That's what changes when the model is built with method and auditable data:
| Criterion | Bliss model | Round promise to use |
|---|---|---|
| The starting point | NOI and actual cash flow | Gross Yield of the announcement |
| Origin of figures | Reportable source + actual portfolio | "+ 40%" / "150% Annual" without method |
| Channel Commission | Tudesvío 10% (transparent) | OTA 15-18% |
| pessimistic scenario | Stress Test Requirement | Just an optimistic case |
| Retirement model | R2R + upside shared ground | Fixed canon with ceiling |
The mixed model of Bliss combines a ground (guaranteed income at R2R) with a distribution that captures the rise as an asset surrenders. The financial model isn't just an Excel of due diligence: it's also the contract under which we share what that Excel projects.
If you want to get deeper into concrete pieces of the model, these articles develop them: EUR cascade of net yield in tourist housing, Cap rate to value a tourist apartment from NOI, actual profitability of a tourist building and choice of structure between S.S.O. or economic activity and, if you invest from outside Spain, the fiscal peculiarities of Non-resident foreign investor. For complete theses and services, the tourism investment and services.
FAQ
How do we build a pro- form of tourist housing?
It's built up and down into four blocks. First income: Realist ADR by number of nights sold (occupation × 365), and not by high season fare. Second, the operational costs: production of carcases, cleaning, supplies, IBI, community, insurance, maintenance and management, and in a well-run VT they are about the raw 70% (sector estimate). The subtract gives the NOI. Thirdly, debt service: mortgage share according to LTV and type. Fourth, free cash and net yield flow onto invested capital. Each line goes in euro, not round percentages.
What occupation and what ADR should I use in the model?
Usa referencias del mercado real, no el mejor mes. El ADR vacacional medio en España en 2025 fue de 165,49 € con una ocupación media del 56,6% (Lodgify, 2025); los apartamentos turísticos promediaron 139 €/noche y las villas 256,6 €. Modela el primer año con una ocupación conservadora (rampa de arranque) y solo sube el ADR si los comparables del barrio y el pricing dinámico lo respaldan. Para hotel/aparthotel el benchmark de ingreso por unidad es el RevPAR: 125,4 € en 2025 (STR-Cushman & Wakefield, 2025).
What's a stress stage test and why does that matter?
It's to recalculate the pro-form by lowering the occupation and the ADR (pessimistic scenario) and rising the interest rate, to see if the asset holds up the worse year without destroying box. A deal's only solid if the base stage's good and the pessimist's still viable. Without stress test buy an optimistic version of the salesman.
Why should the model start with net income and not with gross income?
Because the raw that appears in the commercials doesn't get into your pocket. The channel commission (15-18% at OTAs as Airbnb or Booking), cleaning, taxes and management are eaten a large part. To reason about the raw inflates the jield and leads to overpay for the asset. The honest model drops the raw to NOI before calculating any return.
How does the sales channel weigh at NOI?
Mucho. El mix vacacional medio es Booking 54,3%, Airbnb 26,7% y directo 17,6% (Lodgify, 2025), y las OTAs cobran 15-18% de comisión. Cada punto que pasa de OTA a canal directo cae casi entero al NOI. El canal directo de Bliss, Tudesvío, cobra un 10% (no es gratis), frente al 15-18% de las OTAs: esa diferencia es margen recurrente que el modelo debe capturar.
What net profitability is realistic about tourist housing?
Un bruto vacacional del 6-10% suele caer a un 3-7% neto tras gastos, impuestos y vacíos (estimación sectorial). El rango depende de zona, precio de compra, calidad de la gestión y peso del canal directo. La gestión profesional mueve la cifra por dos vías: más ingresos (mejor ocupación y ADR) y menos fuga por canal. En cartera real Bliss opera con una ocupación del 87% e ingresos por encima de la media de mercado (datos internos Bliss).
How does debt affect model cash flow?
The leverage amplifies the return on own funds as an asset's yield outweighs the cost of debt and destroys it if otherwise. That's why the model separates NOI (asset performance, debt free) from cash flow after mortgage (capital performance). The interest rate always stands out: the deal should survive at an increased debt cost without entering negative cash flow.
Who builds the financial model if I'm not an analyst?
Bliss prepares the proform with actual portfolio data (occupation, ADR and costs by area) and with each market figure anchored to verifiable source, and not to round promise. The investment diagnosis delivers the basic model, pessimistic stage and NOI before you sign anything. Can you order them at / Study.
We built your financial model before you sign
We give you the pro-complete form - income, cascade of euro, NOI, debt and pessimistic stage - with information about your area and actual portfolio. No round promise: every figure with its source.